Less than a month until the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner is named, the race remains a muddle.
At least within a certain predictable range.
If voters maintain their recent and not unreasonable trend, the candidates probably will simmer down to the most valuable players on the teams that emerge to play for the national championship.
Beginning in 2000, when Florida State’s Chris Weinke won the Heisman and Oklahoma’s Josh Heupel was runner-up, the trophy has gone to a player bound for the championship game seven out of nine times.
Five times in that span, multiple players competing in the championship game were among the top three Heisman finalists — including 2004 and 2005, when the top three finalists all were in the title game.
So barring any radical change in voting patterns or stunning surprises, expect to see some combination of at least two of the following three on stage in New York on Dec. 12:
Florida quarterback Tim Tebow, the 2007 winner who already has been part of two national titles and has shepherded his team to a No. 1 ranking; BCS No. 2 Alabama running back Mark Ingram, whose 1,364 rushing and receiving yards Alabama says includes 752 after contact, and Texas quarterback Colt McCoy, last year’s runner-up who has emerged from a slow start to complete 72.9 percent of his passes for the Longhorns (No. 3).
It would be hard to call any of those votes misguided or miscast, exactly. But consider the case of Case Keenum of BCS No. 15 Houston, whose whopping statistics eclipse those and others by far and still only tell part of his story.
Keenum has completed 71 percent of his 485 passes with a nation’s-best 28 touchdowns and just five interceptions. His 3,815 passing yards are 1,045 more than the next-most prolific yardage producer, Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame.
More significantly, Keenum led Houston (8-1) to an upset at then-No. 5 Oklahoma State, ran for the winning touchdown with 49 seconds left against Texas Tech, hurled the winning TD with 21 seconds left against Southern Mississippi and guided Houston to two scores in the final 21 seconds to produce a 46-45 win over Tulsa.
That’s a lot of Heisman moments.
And don’t blame the lone blemish on Houston’s season on Keenum. In the 58-41 loss to Texas-El Paso, he completed 51 of 76 passes for 536 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions.
In Heisman straw polls conducted by ESPN, USA Today, Scripps Howard and CBSSports.com, that profile has been too overwhelming to ignore. Keenum is a close second in three of the four and fourth in USA Today’s version.
The Scripps Howard vote, in which the Post-Dispatch cast a No. 1 ballot for Keenum, is the only one of the four clearly made up of actual Heisman voters. In that 10-voter breakdown, Ingram leads Keenum by a single point, and Keenum has one fewer No. 1 vote than Ingram (four) and the same amount as Tebow.
Whether the broader base will give him such consideration remains to be seen. Even if Houston remains unscathed the rest of the way, playing in Conference USA will work against Keenum.
But if voters are true not to the prevailing voting scheme but the Heisman’s actual edict — determining “the most outstanding football player in the United States” — Keenum deserves conscientious consideration.
HEADS-UP PLAY
Lurking a shade away from the national championship game if oddities ensue ahead are No. 4 Texas Christian, No. 5 Cincinnati and No. 6 Boise State.
Even reaching this point, TCU’s highest ranking since 1956, would be overwhelming to coach Gary Patterson if he let it.
“It’s kind of like climbing the Eiffel Tower, which I did this summer,” Patterson told reporters, adding, “I’m glad I didn’t look down on the way up. Just keep looking ahead, look up. That’s where all the work is. Nobody gets scared looking up.”
Each has challenges ahead to stay afloat, with TCU taking on No. 14 Utah on Saturday hoping to beat the Utes for just the second time in six meetings. Boise State has to contend with in-state rival Idaho (7-3) this week and suddenly surging Nevada (6-3) on Nov. 27.
And the Bearcats might have the toughest road of all, with West Virginia tonight (7-3), resuscitated Illinois on Nov. 27 and Pittsburgh (8-1) on Dec. 5.
Cincinnati’s ability to navigate that schedule could well depend on how it manages its quarterback situation.
Since starter Tony Pike was injured, sophomore backup Zach Collaros has gone 70 for 89 with 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns and run for 281 yards and four scores in three games.
Now Pike is ready again and expected to play tonight against West Virginia, but Collaros will start for the fifth-ranked Bearcats.
The difference between the two? According to The Associated Press, receiver Mardy Gilyard calls Collaros “Joystick” for the way he zooms one way and then another and calls Pike “Pistol” for his rapid delivery.
Coach Brian Kelly’s ability to make compatible use of the Joystick and Pistol will go a long way toward determining whether the Bearcats can hover near the top.
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